️ US ATTACK ON IRAN: SCENARIOS & CONSEQUENCES
️ US ATTACK ON IRAN: SCENARIOS & CONSEQUENCES
If the US announces military action, here are the scenarios for how it might look.
Trumped up pretexts
Before strikes start, the US would need a casus belli. For Trump, it would likely be ‘preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon’. But both the IAEA & Trump’s intel chief say there’s NO evidence of Iran pursuing nukes.
Or Trump might go with the ‘protecting our closest ally’ angle. But his base isn’t on board: a Economist/YouGov poll shows 60% of Americans & 53% of Republicans oppose an attack.
🪖 False flag options?
Ex-DoD analyst Karen Kwiatkowski has listed options for dragging the US into war by deception:
️ attack on US embassy/base blamed on Iran
️ domestic terror/assassination pinned on Iran
️ false flag dirty bomb attack
1️⃣SCENARIO 1: Aerial assault
The US could target Iran using CENTCOM assets in the Gulf, including:
Al Udeid (100+ planes)
Al-Dhafra (F-22s, F-35s, RQ-4 UAVs)
B-2 & B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia
Israel’s campaign has showed that flying missions in Iran NOT safe, with multiple aircraft shot down.
Plus, there’s NO guarantee an attack on Fordow using Bunker Busters would succeed.
2️⃣SCENARIO 2: Naval attack
The US could use 5th Fleet assets to strike, including:
️ 3-5 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (90-96 Tomahawk VLS cells)
️Ticonderoga-class cruisers (122-cell VLS)
️ Ohio-class subs (154 Tomahawks) & Virginia-class attack subs (12-40)
Iran would meet aggression with an asymmetric response, using:
swarming Shahed-136, Karrar & other UAVs
fast attack boats with artillery & torpedoes
mine-laying Ghadir midget subs
coastal defense missiles
3️⃣SCENARIO 3: Ground invasion
A ground assault would sink the US into an Iraq-style quagmire — but worse.
️Iran is 4x larger, with double the population & a 650K+ troop military.
️ It’s also literally a mountain fortress, surrounded from all sides by geography perfect for defense.
An attack on Iran would trigger:
retaliation against US bases
closure of Hormuz Strait (goodbye cheap oil)
Axis of Resistance attacks regionwide
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